(Article by: Lead Forecaster Brooks Barber – Thursday, August 29, 2013) Last winter came in like a lamb and went out roaring like a lion. With little activity for the most part in December, once late-February arrived, we were smacked hard with two major snowstorms and blizzards dumping as much as two feet of snow in both! Worse yet, the last snowfall of the season in Kansas was in MAY! A whopping total of 40″ of snow fell for the season in Hays, well above average, and many records were broken statewide. After that crazy winter, many are wondering what is to come this year…
While winter is still many months away, a picture of what could possibly occur is beginning to unfold due to current trends and comparing this year to previous years, and how those winters panned out. Before I give you my first glimpse at what to expect this winter, let me give my usual reminder that I cannot even guarantee a forecast for a season released weeks before it begins, so a forecast released months out such as this one, is only released to give you an update on my CURRENT thoughts on what we can POSSIBLY expect this winter. Right now it is just an educated guess, and it still has plenty of time to be proven incorrect.
Right now it looks like a large portion of the United States may see cooler than average temperatures this winter. Areas from the Pacific Northwest, into the Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, South, Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeastern US have the better chances for those cooler than average temperatures. Kansas is currently in the runnings for this as well, for now anyways.
For the West Central, Central Rockies, Southwest, and portions of the Southern Plains, it is still questionable whether they will see average to warmer than average temperatures. With that said, I currently am forecasting the more you work your way to the west and south, the greater chance there is for warmer than average temperatures.
What about Snowfall and Precipitation?
I’m waiting to tell you about those goodies in my first official winter forecast, my Winter 2013-14 Preliminary Forecast, which I am currently planning to release by late September. Please do check back for an exact date on that when the time gets closer. Until then, I will say that it looks like some people will definitely see some big snows this winter! Who and where? Well, again, that will have to wait for now!
Quick recap on what to expect… As of current thoughts…
It currently looks like we will definitely be seeing some colder weather this winter, especially from the Plains into the Midwest and portions of the Eastern United States. It is questionable elsewhere on whether we can expect around average to warmer than average weather. With that said, I do believe the further southwest you go, the better chances that it will be warmer than average. And for snowfall? Well, some people will definitely be getting some good snows, but you will have to wait and find out who could see those snows in our preliminary forecast!
Winter Forecast Release Schedule:
Check back as these times get closer for exact dates for release;
- Previews off and on through December, if/as needed
- Preliminary Forecast by Late-September
- Possible update in October
- Official Forecast by Late November
- Update IF needed in December
Thank you for checking in on my preview for the upcoming winter. I hope you found what you were looking for. Please remember that this is NOT an official forecast, and that it is not guaranteed to be correct. It is only a preview. Also, if you were looking for more information in the way of scientific reasons as to of why I am currently thinking what I am, you are welcome to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I try to release an understandable forecast like this one to the public so it is easy to get for EVERYONE.
-Lead Forecaster Brooks Barber