Preliminary Winter 2013-14 Outlook

Brooks Barber by Brooks Barber September 23, 2013   Top Stories

(Article by Lead Forecaster Brooks Barber – Monday, September 23, 2013)

After a warmer than average but snowier than average winter last year, and then a cooler than average summer, many are wondering what is to come for the upcoming winter. Today I am giving you a look at my current thoughts in this Preliminary Winter 2013-14 Winter Outlook.

Before we get started, let me please remind you that this is a preliminary outlook and we are still very far out from winter. With that said, take this outlook with a grain of salt, and be ready for the next outlook and winter itself to be at least somewhat different than what this forecast says today. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on what may occur this winter, but here is what I am thinking as of now;

Temperature Outlook

Slide1

It is currently looking like this winter may be a chilly one for the majority of the United States… A large portion of the country will likely be experiencing below normal temperatures, with only a small portion of the west/southwestern US experiencing above normal temperatures.

Parts of the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region all need to brace for a potentially bitterly cold winter with below average temperatures. From parts of the Northwest, Northern Plains, Central Plains, into parts of the Southeast, and on up the East Coast, be ready for some slightly colder than average conditions. Parts of the Northwest through much of the Rockies, Southern Plains, and Gulf Coast Region all currently have equal chances to be above or below average on temperatures.

Precipitation Outlook

Slide2

Precipitation is kind of a mix up right now, but I am currently leaning towards the likelihood of seeing some wetter than normal conditions this winter for portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and New England. Slightly drier than normal conditions look to be the case for now along the West Coast, Southwest, and far Southern Plains this winter… Elsewhere there are currently equal chances for above or below average precipitation.

Snowfall Outlook

Slide3

Now for the part most of you are reading for… Who will see the most snow this winter and who will miss out? Again, too soon to guarantee anything, but here is what I am thinking for now; If you are a snow lover in the Midwest-Great Lakes area, you are in luck. From Missouri/Eastern Kan. on up through Chicago and Michigan, I am currently planning on seeing a snowier than average winter. Surrounding this zone across the western portions of the Midwest, parts of the Central Plains, Arkansas-Tennessee, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast, expect to see slightly above average snowfall… All other areas have equal chances for above or below average snowfall.

Winter Forecast Summary

Slide4

To sum it all up, this winter looks pretty cold for a good chunk of the country and decently snowy for portions of those same areas…

Expect a very cold winter for parts of the Northern Plains and a chilly winter from the Northwest through other parts of the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains, as well as down in the Southeast and up along the East Coast.

Expect a very cold and very snowy winter in the Midwest-Great Lakes regions, with a chilly and snowy winter for portions of the Central and Southern Plains on up into New England.

Expect a generally average winter for the majority of the Rocky Mountain region, parts of the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast region, and Florida.

Be ready for a drier winter in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Western US, Southwestern US, and far Southern Plains… Toss in some warm conditions to that mix for parts of the Southwestern US.

 

Well, that’s that. Thank you for reading and be sure to check in again for our mid-term winter forecast update about a month from now sometime around the 20th of October. Our official and final forecast is expected to be released around the 20th of November. If you have any questions or comments, please do so below in the comments section, or email me at brooks.cirruswx@live.com.

  Comments

Written by
Brooks Barber
Brooks has had an interest in weather for as long as he can remember, and in part with his passion for helping others, started Cirrus Weather in 2010. He currently lives in Hays, Kansas and attends Hays High School, where he is involved in the video production department, some other technology classes, and business classes. Brooks is also a member of his local AMS/NWA chapter. In the 2014-15 school year he will become producer of the video production department, and hopes to become involved with DECA. Brooks has still not decided for sure what he wants to do in the future, but he hopes to attend either KU or FHSU for college and major in one of the following areas; meteorology, business, design, or architecture. When not doing the weather, Brooks also designs graphics for Cirrus Weather along with other websites, and also enjoys spending time with friends and family. Of course, one of his favorite things to do is skiing, but, sadly that's kind of difficult to do all the time in Kansas!

Posted In